Game Preview: Roark vs. deGrom

The Mets (89-72) take on the Washington Nationals (83-78) at 3:10 at Citi Field. Jacob deGrom (2.60 ERA, 2.74 FIP, 0.99 WHIP, 187 IP over 29 starts) faces off against Tanner Roark (4.63 ERA, 4.85 FIP, 1.34 WHIP, 105 IP over 11 starts and 28 relief appearances). This is the final game of the regular season and holds no importance for the Mets, as the Dodgers clinched home field advantage in the NLDS with a win last night against San Diego.

Lineups:wpid-jacob_degrom_on_may_6_2015.jpg.jpeg

Mets:

  1. Curtis Granderson, RF (L)
  2. David Wright, 3B (R)
  3. Daniel Murphy, 2B (L)
  4. Yoenis Cespedes, CF (R)
  5. Lucas Duda, 1B (L)
  6. Travis d’Arnaud, C (R)
  7. Michael Conforto, LF (L)
  8. Ruben Tejada, SS (R)
  9. Jacob deGrom, P (L)

Nationals:

  1. Anthony Rendon, 3B (R)
  2. Trea Turner, 2B (R)
  3. Bryce Harper, RF (L)
  4. Jayson Werth, LF (R)
  5. Clint Robinson, 1B (L)
  6. Ian Desmond, SS (R)
  7. Michael Taylor, CF (R)
  8. Pedro Severino, C (R)
  9. Tanner Roark, P (R)

Mets News: According to Terry Collins, Jacob deGrom will be limited to 80 pitches today, and will be followed by Bartolo Colon, Tyler Clippard, and Jeurys Familia. Steven Matz will throw a bullpen session Tuesday and will pitch in the instructional league on Thursday. Assuming all goes well, that should set him up for a game 4 NLDS start. The Mets are also not opposed to bringing back Jacob deGrom or Noah Syndergaard on 3 days rest. If the Mets are down 2-1 in the NLDS, deGrom could pitch game 4 on 3 days rest and Syndergaard game 5 on regular rest. Juan Uribe is “real iffy” for the NLDS, and his absence could open up a spot for Eric Young Jr., Kirk Nieuwnhuis, or an 8th relief pitcher.

Jacob deGrom is looking to put a nice topper on a fantastic season, albeit in what will likely be a shortened outing. DeGrom is currently 5th among qualified NL pitchers in ERA, 4th in FIP, 4th in xFIP, 7th in BB%, 5th in K%, 4th in K-BB%, 5th in SIERA (ERA estimator), 7th in fWAR, 10th in pitchers bWAR, 8th in RE24, 6th in WPA, and 5th in WPA/LI (context neutral WPA). DeGrom should get some Cy Young votes, but I’d be shocked if he finishes higher than 4th or gathers a single 1st, 2nd, or 3rd place vote, with Jake Arrieta, Zack Greinke, and Clayton Kershaw in front of him.

Tanner Roark, after a very successful 2014 season, has struggled this year while being shuttled between the bullpen and the rotation. Roark was jettisoned from the rotation to make room for Max Scherzer. Oddly enough, Roark has succeeded more in the bullpen than in the rotation, with a 3.74 ERA in bullpen work and a .313 wOBA against. In the rotation, over 11 starts, Roark has a 5.31 ERA and a .362 wOBA against. As a starter, Roark has struggled with the home run ball, allowing 1.82 HR/9. Roark has not started against the Mets this season, but he has made 4 relief appearances. In those appearances, he has pitched 5 1/3 innings and allowed 4 runs, all 4 of which came in an outing that lasted only 1/3 of an inning.

As always, LET’S GO METS!

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