9/22/15 Game Preview: Wisler vs. Verrett, slumping d’Arnaud sits

The Mets (85-65) take on the Atlanta Braves (60-91) at 7:10 toight at Citi Field in the 2nd game of a 3-game series. Rookie right-handers Matt Wisler (5.63 ERA, 5.32 FIP, 1.63 WHIP, 86 1/3 IP over 16 starts and 1 relief appearance) and Logan Verrett (2.89, 3.87, 0.94, 37 1/3 IP over 2 starts and 13 relief appearances) square off.

Lineups:

[Newsday]

Braves:

  1. Nick Markakis, RF (L)
  2. Hector Olivera, 3B (R)
  3. Freddie Freeman, 1B (L)
  4. A.J. Pierzynski, C (L)
  5. Nick Swisher, LF (S)
  6. Jace Peterson, 2B (L)
  7. Andrelton Simmons, SS (R)
  8. Michael Bourn, CF (L)
  9. Matt Wisler, P (R)

Mets:

  1. Curtis Granderson, RF (L)
  2. David Wright, 3B (R)
  3. Daniel Murphy, 2B (L)
  4. Yoenis Cespedes, CF (R)
  5. Lucas Duda, 1B (L)
  6. Wilmer Flores, SS (R)
  7. Michael Conforto, LF (L)
  8. Kevin Plawecki, C (R)
  9. Logan Verrett, P (R)

With the Mets this season, Verrett has a 1.91 ERA in 28 1/3 IP, and has allowed only 2 runs over 13 IP in his two starts. He has only allowed 7 hits and 2 walks in those 13 innings to go with 11 strikeouts. Also since joining the Mets, Verrett has a 25.2% strikeout rate and a 5.8% walk rate, both fantastic, even though it’s a small sample size. Verrett has also allowed a .164 BABIP against, which is way too low to be sustainable. However, Verrett has shown a certain knack for turning batted balls into outs, and a combination low walk rate and low BABIP looks like a good matchup against a weak hitting Atlanta team that likes to work the count and make contact.

Matt Wisler has struggled mightily this season, but has done very well in his two starts against the Mets. In 14 IP, Wisler has allowed only 3 runs, 13 hits, and 3 walks while striking out 8. Put another way, Wisler has a 1.92 ERA against the Mets and a 6.35 ERA against the rest of baseball. Wisler has struggled mightily on the road and to lefties this season. On the road, Wisler has a 7.42 ERA (.422 wOBA against) while against lefties, he has a .463 wOBA against with a 13.9% walk rate and only an 8.4% strikeout rate.

In today’s game of arbitrary endpoints, Daniel Murphy has been doing very well in his last 8 games. Since September 11th, Murphy is hitting .333/.371/.667 (.436 wOBA, 185 wRC+, 5.12 RE24, 0.64 WPA). In 35 plate appearances, Murphy has struck out only twice and has hit two huge home runs – a 3-run shot to tie the game in the 9th inning against Atlanta and a solo shot to give the Mets the lead against Masahiro Tanaka and the Yankees. Of Murphy’s 20.08 RE24 this season, 5.12 have come in those 8 games.

Continuing with said game, Cameron Maybin has struggled mightily since August 26th, part of which was likely influenced by a scratched cornea which caused him to miss some time. However, Since that date in 59 plate appearances, Maybin is hitting only .127/.186/.145 (.157 wOBA, -9 WRC+, or 109% below league average). Therefore, Maybin sits out today.

Similarly for the Mets, Travis d’Arnaud is 0 for his last 17 with only 1 walk and 6 strikeouts. D’Arnaud gets the day off in favor of Kevin Plawecki.

As always, LET’S GO METS!

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